economy
Your tax refund could be smaller than expected this season. Here's why
Tax refunds are higher on average compared with last year, but the change has been smaller than some early projections. Here's what to expect.
TL;DR
- Average tax refunds are higher this year, but the increase is less than some projections.
- As of March 6, the average refund was $3,676, up from $3,324 last year.
- The average refund size peaked in mid-February, a common trend when credits like the earned income tax credit are included.
- Some filers claiming President Trump's new tax breaks on Schedule 1-A are seeing average refunds $775 higher than last year.
- Nearly 45% of returns have claimed one of Trump's new tax breaks from Schedule 1-A.
- The increased limit for the state and local tax (SALT) deduction could boost refunds, but only for those who itemize.
- Most taxpayers (nearly 90% in 2022) use the standard deduction, not itemizing to benefit from SALT.