economy

Young People Are Falling Behind, but Not Because of AI

The case that AI is already stealing young people’s jobs is based on a statistical mirage.

Young People Are Falling Behind, but Not Because of AI

TL;DR

  • The unemployment rate for recent college graduates has increased significantly since late 2022, but this trend is not necessarily caused by AI.
  • A key reason for this misconception is that individuals who stop looking for work are removed from unemployment statistics, masking a more widespread issue among young workers.
  • The advantage of having a college degree in the job market has been shrinking for years due to an increased supply of graduates, predating the release of advanced AI like ChatGPT.
  • Research does not show a correlation between occupations most exposed to AI and worse employment outcomes; in fact, some studies suggest AI may be improving employment for certain college-educated workers.
  • The primary drivers of the weak job market for young people appear to be a general slowdown in hiring across the economy, attributed to economic uncertainty, fears of recession, and political instability, which discourages new investments and hiring.