economy

BofA says these trades combine seasonals for 3Q, the month and the presidential cycle

Bank of America looks at seasonal trades for the third quarter, the coming month and the second year of a presidential cycle.

BofA says these trades combine seasonals for 3Q, the month and the presidential cycle

TL;DR

  • Seasonal trends favor the Nasdaq 100, a stronger U.S. dollar, and lower global bond yields.
  • The market may repeat the third quarter of 2018, suggesting long U.S. equities and dollar, and short Treasurys and commodities.
  • The Nasdaq 100 has risen in every third quarter since 2018, with July being particularly strong.
  • Other favorable trades include dollar strength versus the Brazilian real and South African rand, lower overseas government bond yields, and long Australian stocks.
  • NYMEX copper has historically strengthened in July.

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