health
America's birth rate has plunged. Are smartphones to blame?
A decades-long decline in the U.S. fertility rate has confounded policymakers and economists alike, with experts pointing to possible causes ranging from the economic fallout of the Great Recession to changing public attitudes about parenthood. Now, one economist is pointing to another factor: the iPhone.
TL;DR
- Economist Caitlin Myers' research links the iPhone's introduction in 2007 to a significant portion of the U.S. fertility rate decline.
- The study suggests the iPhone's impact stems from its role in substituting in-person interactions, increased pornography access, and easier access to contraception information.
- The research used a natural experiment comparing birth rates in U.S. counties with varying AT&T coverage between 2007 and 2011.
- Myers acknowledges that the iPhone is not the only cause, estimating it explains one-third to one-half of the decline, leaving the rest to other factors.
- Declining birth rates have broader economic implications, potentially affecting the solvency of programs like Social Security.
- Government incentives to increase birth rates, even in countries with generous parental programs, have largely failed to reverse the trend.