Pfizer’s modest 2026 outlook shows its big investments will take time to pay off
Pfizer has pursued deals of all sizes to build new revenue streams, but the outlook underscores that those investments are still some distance from paying off.
TL;DR
- Pfizer forecasts modest 2026 guidance due to waning Covid product sales and declines from older drugs.
- The company anticipates adjusted profit between $2.80 and $3 per share for 2026, slightly below analyst estimates.
- Expected revenue for 2026 is between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, largely flat compared to 2025 guidance.
- Sales of Covid vaccine and Paxlovid are forecast to drop by approximately $1.5 billion year-over-year in 2026.
- An additional $1.5 billion drop in sales is expected due to market exclusivity losses for certain products.
- Pfizer expects $17 billion in revenues to be impacted by patent and regulatory exclusivity expirations in 2026 and 2028.
- The drugmaker is targeting more than $7 billion in cost cuts by 2027, with the majority expected by next year.
- Recent acquisitions, such as Metsera and Seagen, are mentioned as investments that are still in early development stages.
- Lower prices for Eliquis in Medicare are expected due to negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
- A drug pricing deal with the Trump administration includes providing deeper discounts to Medicaid patients.
- Concerns about vaccine policy uncertainty and infection rates are noted as factors for conservative estimates.