economy
Kalshi traders expect this week's jobs report will disappoint Wall Street outlook
Dow Jones expects over 118,000 jobs will be added, but Kalshi traders give under 60% that over 100,000 jobs will be added.
TL;DR
- Kalshi traders differ from the Dow Jones consensus on the upcoming jobs report, expecting lower job growth.
- Dow Jones consensus forecasts 118,000 job growth, while Kalshi traders see less than a 60% chance of exceeding 100,000 jobs.
- Kalshi traders assigned only 14.2% odds that US GDP would rise between 2.6% and 3%, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's optimistic outlook.
- Traders on Kalshi give a 71% chance the unemployment rate will go over 4.2%, aligning with the Dow Jones consensus.