economy
Wednesday’s crucial CPI report will show tamer inflation, according to prediction markets
Monday's odds on prediction market platform Kalshi show tamer inflation and little chance of exceeding economists' consensus for July.
TL;DR
- Prediction market traders expect July's CPI to be below the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
- Kalshi traders see a less than 55% chance of July's year-over-year CPI exceeding 3.3%.
- Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast headline inflation at 3.4%, lower than June's 3.5%.
- Traders also anticipate July's core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, to be below 2.4% with a low chance of exceeding 2.5%.
- The CPI report is significant for the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions.