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The Lasting Consequences of Bad Climate Science
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TL;DR
- Three officially recognized baseline climate scenarios (RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0) have been deemed 'implausible' due to overprojecting fossil fuel emissions, particularly coal use.
- The retirement of these scenarios will necessitate recalibrating national climate assessments, reconsidering the economics of climate impacts, and potentially revisiting Paris Agreement targets.
- Regulations, court judgments, and laws grounded in the now-retired scenarios are vulnerable to legal challenges.
- The scenarios were based on unrealistic assumptions, such as a five-fold expansion of global coal use, which were not supported by real-world trends.
- New climate projections suggest a lower degree of warming by 2100 compared to previous estimates.
- The International Energy Agency reports significant growth in clean energy investment, with solar photovoltaic technology playing a major role.
- The 1.5 degrees Celsius climate goal is now considered out of reach under credible scenarios.
- A shift towards verifiable targets like a global coal phase-out is suggested as more actionable for climate policy.