economy
Prediction markets will grow to $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein estimates
The investment bank said volumes will reach an estimated $240 billion in 2026 and grow at a 80% compound annual rate between 2025 and 2030.
TL;DR
- Prediction market volumes are booming, projected to quadruple in 2026 and reach $1 trillion within four years.
- Major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen significant year-to-date volume growth, surpassing the total volume of the previous year.
- Growth rates for prediction markets are being compared to the artificial intelligence boom.
- Regulatory clarity at the federal level and blockchain tokenization are expected to boost market liquidity and potential.
- The composition of traded contracts is predicted to shift from sports towards economics, business, and political contracts.
- New players like Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog are entering the prediction market space.
- Legal challenges from 14 states and congressional bills are pending due to concerns about insider trading.
- Despite regulatory battles, analysts are optimistic about the long-term outlook due to growing alignment with federal regulators.