tech
AI's potential climate benefits outweighed by role in boosting fossil fuels, study finds
Modelling finds AI-driven productivity gains in coal, oil and gas enable more emissions than applications in renewables avoid
TL;DR
- AI's productivity gains in fossil fuel extraction increase carbon pollution more than its benefits to renewable energy generation.
- A study found net yearly carbon pollution rose by 0.47-1.8 gigatonnes across 64 scenarios.
- Previous research overlooked AI's role in increasing fossil fuel production emissions.
- For emissions to break even, AI productivity gains in renewables must be at least four times greater than in fossil fuels.
- Fossil fuel companies are already implementing AI at scale, while renewable applications are largely in pilot stages.
- The International Energy Agency estimates AI could boost oil and gas reserves by 5% and cut deepwater project costs by 10%.
- Companies like Saudi Aramco and Equinor report significant productivity increases and new discoveries attributed to AI.
- Digitalization and AI are projected to create nearly $500 billion in cumulative value for fossil fuel companies between 2026 and 2030.
- AI enables productivity gains in the fossil fuel sector that result in emissions at least three times current estimates for datacentres.
- Critics argue the AI sector is fundamentally reliant on fossil fuels, and efforts beyond token renewable investments are needed.