$15,000 copper? Top mining CEO warns supply challenges aren't going anywhere
Mining disruptions, supply constraints and tariff fears have sent copper prices to record highs this year.
TL;DR
- Copper prices hit a record high of $11,952 per metric ton on Friday, with three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ending Wednesday at $11,592 per metric ton.
- Copper futures have surged approximately 34% year-to-date, on track for their best year since 2009.
- BHP CEO Mike Henry highlighted copper's importance for the economy, decarbonization, and digitalization, noting a significantly larger market compared to rare earths.
- Demand for copper is projected to increase by 70% between now and 2050, while supply is becoming more challenging due to fewer, smaller, lower-grade mines in tougher jurisdictions.
- The market shifted from slight oversupply to bottlenecks, with disruptions at mines sending prices to record highs.
- Analysts from UBS and Deutsche Bank foresee continued price increases, with UBS predicting $12,000 per ton by Q1 2026 and $13,000 by year-end. Deutsche Bank expects mine supply to drop in 2025 and rebound only slightly in 2026, remaining below 2024 levels.
- Citi analysts predict U.S. hoarding of copper inventory could drive prices to $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and potentially as high as $15,000 by Q2 2026.