economy
Goodbye quarterly earnings? Here's when traders believe this big change will happen
Traders are evenly divided as to whether the change will happen by Jan. 1. That would be an unusually fast timeline for the commission.
TL;DR
- Prediction market traders are confident the SEC will change reporting rules from quarterly to semiannual.
- Odds on Kalshi for the change to occur by April 2027 surged to 73% after the proposal.
- Traders are divided on a faster timeline, with odds for approval by Jan. 1 fluctuating around 57%.
- The SEC's rulemaking process typically takes at least a year, often longer.
- The proposed rule is 279 pages long, and the public comment period is 60 days, followed by potential alterations.
- Polymarket traders give a 51% chance that the SEC ends mandatory quarterly reporting in 2026.