Record diesel prices are putting farmers, truckers and small businesses under intense pressure, creating a political demand for immediate action. But the proposed solution—blocking U.S. diesel exports—could ease prices briefly in some regions while making the broader shortage worse.

President Donald Trump has endorsed the idea, saying, “let’s not send out the diesel” because the United States “make[s] a lot of diesel.”¹ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is studying whether a full or partial ban would be feasible given refining capacity. Republican lawmakers from agricultural states, including Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley and Rep. Ashley Hinson, have pressed for restrictions, while Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has called for a 90-day ban.

Their argument is straightforward: diesel averaged about $6.53 a gallon nationally, with prices even higher in California, and fuel is essential to farm equipment, freight and construction. Grassley has argued that high diesel prices are “killing farmers income,”² while supporters say an export halt could keep more supply at home.

The opposing analysis focuses on what happens next. U.S. refineries produce more distillate fuel—including diesel, heating oil and jet fuel—than domestic consumers use, so exports are driven by global markets rather than a simple domestic surplus. Energy analyst Patrick De Haan said an export ban is “very likely to backfire,”³ warning that refiners could cut production, switch to other fuels or find ways around the restrictions.

The oil industry makes the same case from a commercial perspective. American Petroleum Institute chief Mike Sommers said restricting exports would “compound the problem” and called for “more supply and more flexibility—not new restrictions.”¹ Even conservative policy analysis acknowledges a temporary price decline on the Gulf Coast might not reach high-cost regions and could eventually lift prices nationwide. The central divide is therefore not over the pain at the pump, but whether protectionism offers relief—or simply moves the shortage around.